Did you wear the juice: confronting the illusion of Confidence

If life gives you a lemon, make lemonade out of it, however, it takes confidence and knowledge to make lemonade. Confidence without knowledge is stupidity, being confident does not equate to being competent or knowledgeable. Confucius once said, real knowledge is knowing the extent of one’s ignorance. In his classic work of 1871, Charles Darwin said Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge. It is no surprise therefore that incompetent confident people sometimes seem to get better recognition and enjoy better rewards. How often do we get swayed by confidence at the expense of knowledge, outward appearance against strong inward values? People with self-confidence tend to overestimate their true worth and value, we all seem to occasionally fall into this situation once in a while, if not all the time.  If you doubt it, if you have the privilege to rate yourself in an exam or end of year appraisal, there is a strong likelihood you will rate yourself higher than what your supervisor or lecturer will give you.  To be self-aware, means you recognise the imperfection in our approaches, knowledge, and style, because they are sometimes, irrational, inept, or blatantly stupid. 

Sometime in 1995 in Pittsburg USA a bizarre incident happened. A well-built middle-aged man named McArthur Wheeler decided to rob two banks in broad daylight. His strategy not to be caught and execute the robbery flawlessly was very simple: he smeared his face with lemon juice. He went into the bank to rob without a mask, he walked straight into the bank, looking confidently into the security camera with a strong feeling of invisibility. McArthur  believed that having smeared his face with lemon juice,  he would become undetectable to the security cameras. Did the idea sound foolish? Well, wait until you hear his theory.  McArthur discovered that lemon juice is normally used as invisible ink, therefore, he came to a conclusion that if his face is covered with it, he will become undetectable to the security cameras.

He tested his hypothesis before embarking on his mission. At home he covered his face with lemon juice, and used his Polaroid  camera to take a selfie,  he developed the camera film later, and bingo, the photo was blank, his face was “undetected”. However, remember that in 1995 mobile phones were almost unheard of, talk less of one with a camera to take selfies as we do today. To take a selfie with your camera, you have to turn the camera to yourself and take it. This is what McArthur did, unfortunately, he never realized he could have focused the camera wrongly. How well can he see when the face is already covered with lemon juice? Having printed the picture, he was confident of success. He robbed two banks in broad daylight, however his photo was splashed within minutes to the law enforcement agencies. Hours later he got arrested, and when questioned, he looked dejected. The law enforcement officers were stunned by his plan, who robs a bank without using a mask?  They thought maybe he was under the influence of alcohol, drugs, or any other substance, but he wasn’t! Why did you rob the bank without a face mask, don’t you think you will get caught? He replied BUT I WORE THE JUICE!

How often do we deceive ourselves, doing the basic things and start feeling on top of the world like a “conqueror” who has never been to war. The “illusion of confidence” is everywhere around us: classroom, boardroom, or situation room. The McArthur issue led to research by David Dunning a Professor of Psychology at Cornell University, together with his student, they embarked on a study to understand how human minds work. The outcome of the research led to what is known today as the Dunning-Kruger effect. 

Dunning-Kruger effect. How does your mind work?

Our mind is complex and powerful. Dunning and Kruger in their research discovered that people who have the worst performance assessment often rated themselves higher on competence. In the study, they gave quizzes on grammar, logic, and jokes to undergraduate students. At the end, each student was asked to rate him or herself, in comparison to the performance of fellow students. Their findings were quite insightful, students with the lowest score actually overestimated their performance not by a small fraction but by a significant difference in comparison with the objective assessment. Doesn’t this explain how we function sometimes? In another study, they discovered best performing students always underestimate their performance and competence believing that others can do the same.

When we embark on leading out on a change project and get a bad outcome, we should pause to change the estimation of  our knowledge of the problems and our competence to handle them. Aren’t we sometimes consumed by an illusion of confidence like McArthur? Unfortunately, the probability to self-overate is frighteningly common.  Dunning and Kruger observed that people overestimate their ability and this is an illusion of superiority? 

Conclusion

We live in a society whereby the confident people may lack competence, and the competent people may fall short on confidence. To have a great outcome in leadership or business, confidence must be balanced with competence, we must beam our searchlight because confidence does not necessarily mean competence and as Darwin said “ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge”. As leaders too, we need to encourage and boost the confidence of competent people around us, so they can position better and attain greater heights.

Dunning and Kruger said “When people are incompetent in the strategies they adopt to achieve success and satisfaction, they suffer a dual burden: Not only do they reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices, but their incompetence robs them of the ability to realise it. Instead, like Mr Wheeler, they are left with the mistaken impression that they are doing just fine.” Are you doing just fine?!

Olukunle A. Iyanda PhD, FCA, SNFLI.

Founder/CEO, BROOT Consulting Nigeria Limited.

Human-Centric Design Led Innovation Consultant.