The VUCA World: How Exclusion Fuel Unpredictability and Complexity

Opportunity is missed by most people because it is dressed in overalls and looks like work – Thomas Edison

At the end of the cold war, the United States War College described the condition of our world as Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous. (VUCA). How accurate is this assertion? How complex and volatile is our world today? What are the implications for individuals, businesses and governments? Today, business leaders are in panic mode because of rapid changes that make the future of their trade uncertain. World governments are jittery of the rise in populism, Artificial Intelligence, mental health problems, trade wars, the arms race and a possible return of the cold war.  How should businesses, governments and individuals, therefore, position themselves to thrive in our VUCA world?

When the US war college came up with VUCA, they had their indicators, but in a short while, the realities have increased in crazy proportions. They never envisaged that few years after their pronouncement, the action of a 26 years old man would trigger an uprising, that will dethrone established governments and lead to a chain of reactions in global politics. The resultant forced migration to European countries caused so much fear and panic that the United Kingdom government succumbed to the referendum that eventually led to Brexit. The complexities and uncertainties were well pronounced at the 2019 World Economic Forum in Davos, where various world leaders and global thinkers highlighted that the rise in Inequalities, Terrorism, Climate Change, the China-USA trade war, and Brexit, are currently the most significant threats in our world.

Speaking at Davos The German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, observed with grave concern, the emerging thinking of “shouldn’t we look after our own interests first”, a system that has eroded  confidence in  people who feel financially insecure, left behind, and who turn to extremists for redress. There are two sides to volatility and complexity: technology with potential to redress the culture of exclusion and  leadership practices that encourages exclusion and lack of empathy with unintentional consequences of upheaval in our society.

Sensible Sense for a Complex World

Internet Image: Mohamed Bouaziz

Could the genesis of Brexit be traced to 17^th December 2010, when a 26-year-old Tunisian man, Mohamed  Bouazizi, decided to end his life? Mohamed was a fruit vendor who struggled to provide for his family by hawking oranges.  On that fateful day he had a score with a police officer who cited him for not having a permit to sell his trade. The police officer demanded a $7 bribe from him, an amount that was about 70% of his total daily sales. In a fit of fury and despair, Mohamed could no longer stand the system of unfair treatment, suppression and endemic corruption that had brought him untold hardship. In a mad of a moment protest, he poured petrol on himself and set himself ablaze in front of the municipal building. The gory scene was captured on camera phones, uploaded to various social media platform, thus, the beginning of a movement.

The mass protest that followed his death shook and altered the political landscape in some Middle East countries. The mass protest against oppression, nepotism, high unemployment and poverty rates made Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, the then president of Tunisia to forcefully leave power and flee the country on 14^th January 2011 after twenty-four years in office. The uprising reached Egypt, and  Hosni Mubarak was forced to leave the office after thirty years in power. After eight months of protest, in October 2011 Muammar Ghaddafi of Libya became the next victim after 42 years in power. Yemen Leader though survived the assassination attempt was forced to resign in 2012 after over 30 years in power. Bashar Al-Assad of Syria managed to cling to power, but he is practically ruling over a ruined nation. According to the United Nation (UNHCR), of the 22million pre-war population, 13.5 million Syrians are in need humanitarian assistance,  6 million are internally displaced within Syria, and around 5 million are refugees outside of Syria.

Global Leaders View of Fragility of Our World

Currently, there are 2.27 billion Facebook users, 1.8 billion people on YouTube, 800 million active users on Instagram, and 1.5 billion users of WhatsApp while there are countless others on other social media platforms, the rapid diffusion of communication technologies in our world makes people more informed and empowered and equally increases the level of volatility and complexity in a world that pays little attention to the blind spot of exclusivity. Hence, a different mindset and leadership style is required to navigate the volatility and ambiguity.

The following views are analysis from global leaders at Davos 2019. I believe they can help organisations, individuals and governments to survive the chaos and create opportunities that makes the world better than we met it.

Build Trusting Relationship:

lack of trust in product, services and leadership could trigger a global backlash. Corporate leaders or government officials should make  earning the trust of their stakeholders an ultimate priority. The immediate past CEO of Unilever; Paul Polman, highlighted this at Davos 2019.  He said big business would continue to pay the costs for a loss of trust, including rising citizen unrest and environmental instability, except it swiftly reorients itself towards an inclusive growth model. Gillian Tett of the Financial Times said  “an absolute scream of anger and pain by ordinary populations against the elites… The idea that only one in five people think the system is working for them, is terrifying…The fact that so many people are scared of the future is startling.”

Embrace Inclusive Growth:

the culture of exclusion which unconsciously stems from how we design and deliver our services or products; how we allocate resources; and how we grant privileges are potential time bombs that could affect the continuity of leadership and the lifespan of a particular product or service offerings. The CEO of Save the Children, Helle Thorning-Schmidt, challenged companies to address their policies towards inclusive growth  if they intend to rebuild trust

Treat Your Employees well:

surviving in a VUCA world requires that employees and other stakeholders are fairly treated. At Davos 2019, The CEO of Edelman, a global communication and marketing firm,  Richard Edelman said that the workforce is the most important stakeholder group; therefore, there is the need to make them first and not last. If your employees are proud to be with you, they serve customers better and you will serve shareholders well.

Learn from the most admired companies:

what do admired countries, companies and CEOs have in common? It is a strong sense of purpose, honesty, inspiring behaviour, future-focus, empathy, innovative mindset, and strong commitment. They practice diversity and equality. You should do likewise

Conclusion

The above presents a glimpse of the possibilities and realities in a VUCA world. Individuals, businesses, organisations and governments cannot continue to be oblivious to the volatile system of the world. Time is ticking, and a deliberate action that will ensure culture transformation at all level is required. Any institutions that is able to embrace and implement this are destined to flourish despite VUCA.